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Will Meta's Arena pass Kalshi in monthly users before Jan 1, 2028?
Paid
2.6x
Winner
Winner: Yes
Payouts have been distributed to winners.
Timeline and payout
Prediction opened
Oct 16, 2026 at 10:28 AM ET
Prediction closes
Dec 31, 2027 at 7:00 PM ET
Payouts distributed
24 hours after resolution, once the challenge window closes
How resolution works
- The creator announces the winning outcome, at the deadline or earlier if the result is already known.
- A 24 hour challenge window follows. Anyone who traded can dispute the result; a successful dispute claws payouts back and refunds everyone.
- Winners split the pool in proportion to their predictions. The creator stakes 10% as a safety deposit, returned on honest resolution.