Real-money market
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Billionaires keep saying we will be living and working on the Moon, and commuting there, by 2030. This asks how far it actually gets. Resolves on the longest single continuous stay by any human on the lunar surface completed before January 1, 2031, measured from landing to departure of that crew. Time in lunar orbit does not count, and stays by separate crews are not added together. Resolves to "No crewed landing at all" if no human sets foot on the Moon in that window. For reference, Kalshi prices a NASA lunar landing before 2030 at about 44 percent, and Apollo 17, the longest stay in history, was about 3 days.
Under 14 days
62%