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How will the U.S. Supreme Court rule on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling law for sports event contracts, by 15 July 2028?
Sawa·Closes Jul 15, 2028
Open
48%No merits ruling by deadline (anything else)
Real-money market
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About this market
Two federal circuits split on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling law for CFTC-listed sports event contracts: the Third Circuit said yes (2-1, 6 Apr 2026); the Ninth said no (3-0, 28 Aug 2026), on a preliminary-injunction record. New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on 2 Sep 2026. This market settles on what the Court itself does by 15 Jul 2028 - a preemption holding either way, cert denied in every such case with none pending, or anything else - read off the Court's own docket, order lists and slip opinions.
No merits ruling by deadline (anything else)
48%